Predictability and Information Theory. Part II: Imperfect Forecasts
نویسندگان
چکیده
منابع مشابه
Information Theory and Predictability Lecture 8: Statistical Predictability
In the following lectures we shall develop and explore a general theoretical framework derived from information theory to study practical dynamical prediction from the viewpoint of analyzing the time flow of uncertainty. Here we review the practical aspects of this problem. There are two important dynamical systems which have convincingly demonstrated practical predictability. The first is the ...
متن کاملInformation Theory and Dynamical System Predictability
Predicting the future state of a turbulent dynamical system such as the atmosphere has been recognized for several decades to be an essentially statistical undertaking: Uncertainties from a variety of sources are magnified by dynamical mechanisms and given sufficient time, compromise any prediction. In the last decade or so this process of uncertainty evolution has been studied using a variety ...
متن کاملGames with Imperfect Information: Theory and Algorithms
We study observation-based strategies for two-player turnbased games played on graphs with parity objectives. An observationbased strategy relies on imperfect information about the history of a play, namely, on the past sequence of observations. Such games occur in the synthesis of a controller that does not see the private state of the plant. Our main results are twofold. First, we give a fixe...
متن کاملPart Ii: Legal Liability for Private Sector Forecasts
DECEMBER 2002 AMERICAN METEOROLOGICAL SOCIETY | W ith increasingly sophisticated computer technology and models, weather forecasts have become demonstrably more precise in recent decades. Yet scientists cannot predict the future with 100% precision. Inaccurate or inadequate forecasts can lead to financial or even bodily harm. For example, it has been estimated that the annual cost of electricit...
متن کاملNOTES AND CORRESPONDENCE Evaluating Probabilistic Forecasts Using Information Theory
The problem of assessing the quality of an operational forecasting system that produces probabilistic forecasts is addressed using information theory. A measure of the quality of the forecasting scheme, based on the amount of a data compression it allows, is outlined. This measure, called ignorance, is a logarithmic scoring rule that is a modified version of relative entropy and can be calculat...
متن کاملذخیره در منابع من
با ذخیره ی این منبع در منابع من، دسترسی به آن را برای استفاده های بعدی آسان تر کنید
ژورنال
عنوان ژورنال: Journal of the Atmospheric Sciences
سال: 2005
ISSN: 1520-0469,0022-4928
DOI: 10.1175/jas3522.1